-
Behavioral Economics / Behavioral psychology / Building construction / Cognitive science / Complex Systems / COVID-19 / Data science / Decision Analysis / Decision intelligence / Government / Introduction / Risk Analysis / Simulation / Wicked Problems January 20, 2021
READ MORERight now, getting vaccines “into arms” is the world’s greatest pandemic focus. But everything could change. Says Andy Slavitt, “The headlines we see today…[describe a] massive over-demand and under-supply [of the COVID19 vaccine]…it could easily flip…we could have a massive oversupply, and we have more vaccines than people could possibly need, and now we’re trying […]
-
Building construction / Causal modeling / Climate Change / Complex Systems / Facilities Management / Government / Pandemic Safe Buildings / Unintended consequences December 25, 2020
READ MOREIn my previous post, I explained how we can move from “one size fits all” thinking to solutions that help us design buildings, where we spend 90% of our time, to keep us safer and healthier in a world that, due to increasing pandemics and climate change, is unlike any we’ve experienced before. Here, I’ll […]
-
Complex Systems / Decision Analysis / Decision intelligence / Guest Post / Simulation / Unintended consequences / Wicked Problems August 3, 2020
READ MOREIn Part 2 of this article, I explained that, without careful thought, intervention in a complex situation will, more often than not, lead to unintended consequences. If we don’t lift our game, I promise you. we’ll be left stumbling in the dark. Here, I’ll describe two best practices that overcome these problems. Best practice 1: […]
-
Complex Systems / Decision Analysis / Decision intelligence / Guest Post / Simulation / Unintended consequences / Wicked Problems August 2, 2020
READ MOREDecision failure patterns in complex environments The two decision failures I covered in Part 1 have different causes, but follow similar patterns. The hit man example is a case of “throwing the baby out with the bathwater”: the unintended consequences of achieving the outcome end up nullifying that very same outcome, as shown below: If […]
-
Complex Systems / Decision Analysis / Decision intelligence / Guest Post / Simulation / Unintended consequences / Wicked Problems August 1, 2020
READ MOREMany years ago, I was hooked on reading crime thrillers, especially the kind that ended with an unexpected twist. One of these in particular has stuck in my mind to this day because the idea behind it resonated with so much of what I was discovering in my academic and professional life, both at the […]
-
Behavioral psychology / Complex Systems / COVID-19 / Decision intelligence / Decison model elements / Dependencies / Externals / Levers / Machine Learning / Outcomes July 29, 2020
READ MOREIn Part 2 of this article, I described why it’s particularly challenging for people to take the right actions in the face of the coronavirus. Now I’ll show you the solution. The solution “…The big entity that isn’t in the room that would help to quench a pandemic is technology…” — Tara O’Toole, CEO, In-Q-Tel […]
-
Behavioral psychology / Complex Systems / COVID-19 / Decision intelligence / Decison model elements / Dependencies / Externals / Levers / Machine Learning / Outcomes July 28, 2020
READ MOREIn Part 1 of this article, I described the general problem of making decisions in complex environments, along with a decision I made in the face of the coronavirus. Here, I’ll show you how to solve the problem shown above in complex and rapidly changing situations as we are in today with the coronavirus. As […]
-
Behavioral psychology / Complex Systems / COVID-19 / Decision intelligence / Decison model elements / Dependencies / Externals / Levers / Machine Learning / Outcomes July 27, 2020
READ MORE“Democracy depends on an informed populace. Yet the world is now a complex system, so we must democratize technology that helps us make good decisions, despite the complexity. This is now possible, and just in time.”—Dr. Lorien Pratt, author of Link: How Decision Intelligence Connects Data, Actions, and Outcomes for a Better World Can we vanquish […]
-
Behavioral Economics / Behavioral psychology / Cognitive science / Complex Systems / COVID-19 / Decision Analysis / Decision intelligence / Machine Learning / Risk Analysis / Simulation / Wicked Problems July 23, 2020
READ MOREIn this previous post, I described the motivation for this site, this blog, and a new software solution I’ve been building since catching COVID19. Here, I’ll give a bit more detail about what I’ve been putting together. One view of my system looks like this: What you’re seeing is a simulated downtown San Francisco; people […]